Haley and DeSantis Trail Behind
The final Des Moines Register/Mediacom/NBC News poll of likely Republican caucusgoers reveals that former President Donald Trump stands at 48% support, with Nikki Haley at 20% and Ron DeSantis at 16%. The poll also shows Vivek Ramaswamy, a biotech entrepreneur and first-time candidate, with 8% support.
Haley Ahead of DeSantis, but Margin within Sampling Error
This new poll marks the second consecutive survey in Iowa to indicate Nikki Haley leading Ron DeSantis, although her advantage is within the sampling error. It’s worth noting that only nine percent of Haley supporters are extremely enthusiastic about her White House bid, a significantly lower figure compared to the enthusiasm among Trump and DeSantis backers.
High Accuracy of Poll
Conducted by renowned pollster Ann Selzer, this survey has a well-earned tradition of accuracy in past GOP presidential caucuses and is considered the gold standard in Iowa polling.
Trump Maintains Clear Front-runner Status
Donald Trump, making his third White House run, continues to be the clear front-runner in the race. Despite facing four indictments, including charges related to overturning his 2020 election loss, Trump’s support among Republican voters has only grown stronger.
DeSantis’s Campaign Erodes in the Polls
Ron DeSantis, once seen as the clear alternative to Trump in the Republican White House race, has seen his standing in the polls diminish due to campaign setbacks. Former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley has gained momentum in recent months and has caught up with DeSantis for the second-place position in Iowa and national surveys.
Iowa Crucial for DeSantis
DeSantis has pinned his hopes on a strong showing in Iowa, highlighting his extensive grassroots outreach and visits to all 99 of the state’s counties. Pundits have labeled Iowa a “do-or-die” state for the Florida governor.
Weather Threatens Turnout
The release of the survey coincides with frigid temperatures dropping below zero across the state. The bitterly cold weather could potentially impact turnout at Monday night’s caucuses.
Other Candidates in the Race
Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who focused his efforts on New Hampshire and did not campaign in Iowa, suspended his campaign on Wednesday. His share of support has been redistributed to the remaining candidates.
The poll was conducted from January 7-12, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 points.