Trump Ahead by 8 Points in Hypothetical Rematch
Just over half of Peach State voters, 51%, say they would support Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head rematch, while 43% say they’d go for Biden. That puts Trump ahead by 8 points, outside the poll’s margin of sampling error.
Strong Interest from Georgia Voters
Eight in 10 Georgians (78%) say they are extremely or very interested in the race and the vote breakdown among this subgroup is similar: 52% would go for Trump and 43% Biden.
Support from Base Voters
Trump receives strong support from his base, including White evangelicals (85%), conservatives (76%), White voters without a college degree (74%), and rural voters (67%). For Biden, it’s liberals (87%), Black voters (71%), voters with a college degree (52%), and suburban women (52%).
Independents Favor Trump
Democrats are equally likely to support their respective candidates (91% each) while independents go for Trump by 20 points (51%-31%). It also helps Trump that more Republicans (83%) than Democrats (78%) are interested in the election.
Younger Voters Lean towards Trump
Biden is taking a hit with younger voters as those under age 35 go for Trump by 7 points.
Divided Opinion on Legitimacy
A majority says Biden was legitimately elected in 2020 (60%), yet over 2 in 10 (22%) of that subgroup would vote for Trump in 2024. About a third (32%) believe Biden’s victory was suspect, and they overwhelmingly go for the former president (97% Trump).
Trump’s Surprising Strength in Georgia
“Given that the Democrats won major U.S. Senate races in 2020 and 2022, Trump’s strength in this poll is somewhat surprising,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw. “We can blather on (correctly) about how ‘anything can happen,’ but the reality is Biden may want to shift his focus and precious resources away from Georgia and onto other potential battleground states, such as North Carolina.”
Third-Party Candidates Affect Support
In a potential five-way race, the pack, but both the former president and current incumbent lose support to third-party candidates: Trump gets 45%, while Biden drops to 37% support. Other candidates receive a total of 12% support: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (8%), Cornel West (3%), and Jill Stein (1%).
Nikki Haley as a Substitute
The survey tested another hypothetical five-way race, which substitutes Nikki Haley for Trump. In this case, third-party candidates help Biden and hurt Haley. Biden comes out on top by 6 points with 35% support among Georgians, followed by Haley at 29%, Kennedy at 18%, West at 3%, and Stein at 1%.
Concerns about Mental Acuity
Another topic surrounding the presidential candidates is their mental acuity and more voters are extremely or very concerned about Biden’s mental soundness (65% concerned) than they are Trump’s (51%).
Desire for Change
Georgia voters are ready for change — a lot of it. Nearly 8 in 10 want either a lot (50%) or radical (29%) change in how the country is run, while 2 in 10 say a little (17%) or no change (3%) is necessary.
Methodology
Conducted Jan. 26-30 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,119 Georgia registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (200) and cellphones (649) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (270). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. When necessary, weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of survey respondents are representative of the registered voter population.