Saints Head Coach Dennis Allen’s Struggles
The New Orleans Saints, led by head coach Dennis Allen, have been facing difficulties lately. Allen has a poor record of 1-8 SU (-7.9 scoring margin) and 2-7 ATS (-5.2 spread differential) in his coaching history, dating back to his time with the Oakland Raiders. His teams have also struggled in Thursday games, with a record of 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. This includes their recent 31-24 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 7.
Rams’ Success in December
On the other hand, the Los Angeles Rams tend to perform well in December. Under head coach Sean McVay, the team has a solid record of 19-11 SU and 21-9 ATS in regular-season games during this month. When playing as home favorites, the Rams have been particularly successful, with a 7-2 SU and ATS record and a +11.0 scoring margin.
Market Underestimating the Rams
Despite their past success, the market seems to be underestimating the Rams. According to Inpredictable.com, the market ranks the Rams as only +0.5 points better than an average NFL team, placing them ninth overall. However, this ranking fails to consider the strength of schedule. The Detroit Lions, for example, are ranked eighth and are considered +2.2 points better than the Rams. This suggests that the market should give more weight to the teams’ strength of schedule when determining their rankings.
Rams’ Tough Schedule and Saints’ Easy Schedule
Pro Football Focus reveals that the Rams have faced the 11th-toughest schedule, while the Saints have had the luxury of playing the second-easiest schedule. The Rams’ only embarrassing loss came in a 43-20 blowout against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 8. On the other hand, the Saints suffered back-to-back losses against the Minnesota Vikings and the Atlanta Falcons, both with substitute quarterbacks. It’s important to note that the Saints lost to the Falcons after a bye week.
Rams’ Offensive Strength
The Rams boast a powerful offensive combination of quarterback Matt Stafford and head coach Sean McVay. They have been averaging an impressive 34.5 points per game in their last four outings. Their recent matchups against the Cleveland Browns and the Baltimore Ravens saw them score 36 and 37 points, respectively. Both of these teams have stronger defenses than the Saints, highlighting the offensive advantage the Rams hold.
The Rams’ Health Advantage
In addition to their offensive prowess, the Rams also have the advantage of a healthier roster compared to the Saints. There is a possibility that the Rams will have right tackle Rob Havenstein back in the lineup this week. On the other hand, the Saints will likely be without top cornerback Marshon Lattimore, wide receiver Michael Thomas, and possibly wide receiver Chris Olave.
Prediction: Rams Expected to Win
Taking all these factors into account, it is predicted that the Los Angeles Rams will come out on top against the struggling New Orleans Saints. The score is expected to be Rams 27, Saints 19. Betting experts recommend placing a 2.2 unit bet on the Rams at -4 (-110) at PointsBet. The Rams remain playable up to a -6 spread.
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